Thursday, September 29, 2005

NFL week 4

I claim to be good at handicapping soccer - but I must confess I am not so good at the NFL.

I have been trying for years (I started on an XT!) and have learned a lot but still have a long way to go.

To start with - here's my Team Ranking

1 Cincinnati Bengals 105.609843635869
2 Chicago Bears 96.7463345042421
3 Washington Redskins 94.9426256728188
4 Jacksonville Jaguars 88.4172440617737
5 Philadelphia Eagles 88.348053161435
6 Indianapolis Colts 87.6253446785205
7 Cleveland Browns 87.2334341581623
8 Atlanta Falcons 86.4832264111831
9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 86.2826589782286
10 Dallas Cowboys 86.0498541900443
11 New England Patriots 84.8359711632096
12 Kansas City Chiefs 83.6190691000759
13 San Diego Chargers 83.580191498578
14 Denver Broncos 82.5215957353115
15 Miami Dolphins 82.3648856772882
16 Oakland Raiders 82.2588278396138
17 Seattle Seahawks 81.7855638471051
18 Pittsburgh Steelers 81.7740515772168
19 Minnesota Vikings 80.1443872781244
20 Detroit Lions 79.7473194876961
21 Carolina Panthers 79.5564480115586
22 New York Jets 78.1659782345924
23 New York Giants 76.6412771169503
24 Green Bay Packers 76.381823810753
25 New Orleans Saints 73.7571205410027
26 Buffalo Bills 73.0148937135876
27 Saint Louis Rams 70.2471398819479
28 Tennessee Titans 69.920513429753
29 San Francisco Forty Niner 68.3847264241848
30 Arizona Cardinals 64.5533801395632
31 Baltimore Ravens 64.2281553702395
32 Houston Texans 62.0325670381825

Now - here's the strength of schedule factors

Schedule Factor - higher is harder schedule
Houston Texans 113.796156307153 %
Washington Redskins 112.610203887211 %
Baltimore Ravens 111.074358872734 %
Arizona Cardinals 108.842511558917 %
Detroit Lions 108.012424739008 %
New Orleans Saints 105.565178491063 %
New York Jets 104.768347905362 %
Cleveland Browns 103.081924238975 %
Minnesota Vikings 102.983646690326 %
San Francisco Forty Niners 102.647860897443 %
Oakland Raiders 102.634821051544 %
Denver Broncos 102.150345381718 %
Atlanta Falcons 101.628798644574 %
Buffalo Bills 100.721387170543 %
Green Bay Packers 99.91113407016 %
Jacksonville Jaguars 99.297036421079 %
New England Patriots 99.044833425348 %
Kansas City Chiefs 98.788562640489 %
Tennessee Titans 98.535241055904 %
San Diego Chargers 98.254076120279 %
Indianapolis Colts 97.970952875037 %
Carolina Panthers 97.882685838344 %
Miami Dolphins 97.543930004766 %
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 96.260521459652 %
Philadelphia Eagles 95.661853654329 %
Saint Louis Rams 95.338455101979 %
Seattle Seahawks 94.927677843749 %
Chicago Bears 94.846802233734 %
Dallas Cowboys 94.081978675632 %
New York Giants 91.691667896809 %
Cincinnati Bengals 90.889916770937 %
Pittsburgh Steelers 90.548262801233 %

Here's this years score histogram
Score Histogram

3 ****
4
5
6 **
7 ********
8 *
9 *
10 ******
11
12 **
13 ****
14 ***
15
16 ***
17 *******
18 *
19 **
20 ******
21 *
22 *
23 *****
24 *******
25 **
26 ***
27 *******
28 **
29
30 **
31 **
32
33 *
34 ***
35
36
37 **
38 *
39
40
41
42 **
43
44
45 *

Here's the Difference Histogram - notice that three is the most popular difference
1 **
2 **
3 ********
4 ***
5 *
6 **
7 **
8 *
9
10 ***
11 *
12 *
13
14 **
15 **
16 *
17 ****
18
19
20 ***
21
22 *
23 *
24 *
25 *
26
27 *
28
29 *
30
31
32 *
33
34
35
36
37
38
39 *

Here's the home points advantage per game - notice it is not yet the historical three

Home points advantage is 6.10869565217391
Average points per game is 19.7282608695652

Average Rushing TDs per game is .902173913043478
Average Passing TDs per game is 1.30434782608696
Average Field Goals per game is 1.46739130434783

Odd totals are 105
Even totals are 75
Z is 2.31060357674978 95% confidence this is not chance

Z is the statistical hypotheses test parameter. It's calculated as follows.

We are going to test two numbers to see if one is greater then the other by chance or not.

N is a number plus a bigger number.
StdDev is the square root of N / 4
Z is the big number minus the small number + .5 / Std Dev

If nZ is less than 1.645 Then the bigger # is greater then the lesser number by chance (with 90% confidence)
If nZ is greater than 1.645 Then the bigger # is greater then the lesser number not by chance (with 90% confidence)
If nZ is greater than 1.96 Then the bigger # is greater then the lesser number not by chance (with 95% confidence)
If nZ is greater than 2.326 Then the bigger # is greater then the lesser number not by chance (with 98% confidence)
If nZ is greater than 2.576 Then the bigger # is greater then the lesser number not by chance (with 99% confidence)

Home wins are 29
Away wins are 17
Z is 1.91674543001366 90% confidence this is not chance
Home wins minus home point advantage are 21
Away wins minus home point advantage are 25
Z is .737209780774486 90% confidence this is chance

Now here's my picks for all the games

Game # 8
Date Oct 2 2004
Note - both teams away - computer does not use home advantage here
Home New Orleans Saints
Away Buffalo Bills

New Orleans Saints 64.1534614088171 Buffalo Bills 82.6185528457733

Score Prob 3.95191802804012E-03
Home Score New Orleans Saints 13
Away Score Buffalo Bills 16
Score Prob 3.93907999858101E-03
Home Score New Orleans Saints 6
Away Score Buffalo Bills 16
Score Prob 3.55087062585076E-03
Home Score New Orleans Saints 13
Away Score Buffalo Bills 19
Score Prob 3.53933542158369E-03
Home Score New Orleans Saints 6
Away Score Buffalo Bills 19
Score Prob 3.35726441196861E-03
Home Score New Orleans Saints 16
Away Score Buffalo Bills 16
Score Prob 3.3463581484487E-03
Home Score New Orleans Saints 9
Away Score Buffalo Bills 16
Score Prob 3.2986958156086E-03
Home Score New Orleans Saints 13
Away Score Buffalo Bills 13
Score Prob 3.28797981548993E-03
Home Score New Orleans Saints 6
Away Score Buffalo Bills 13
Score Prob 3.28129589659793E-03
Home Score New Orleans Saints 13
Away Score Buffalo Bills 23
Score Prob 3.2706364211013E-03
Home Score New Orleans Saints 6
Away Score Buffalo Bills 23
Over is 39.5
Over prob is .250837727 Kelly is -81.939409253 %
Under prob is .749162273 Kelly is 39.082266396 % Growth is 1.058488738

Hp prob is .144635958 Pay is 2.9 Kelly is -30.555564252 %
H prob is .231189972 Pay is 2.3 Kelly is -36.02023574 %
Tie prob is .199261358 Pay is 2.8 Kelly is -24.559344288 %
V prob is .56954867 Pay is 2.4 Kelly is 26.20834342 % Growth is 1.048323383
Vp prob is .296782883 Pay is 3. Kelly is -5.482567583 %
Home New Orleans Saints straight up win is .362460589
Away Buffalo Bills straight up win is .637539411
Spread is New Orleans Saints minus 3.5 Prob of beating it is .271655707613739
Kelly Vegas point spread for New Orleans Saints is -52.952302202 %
Kelly Vegas point spread for Buffalo Bills is 42.952301102 % Growth is 1.091573265

Most probable score is New Orleans Saints 11. - Buffalo Bills 18.

Game # 2
Date Oct 2 2004
Home Jacksonville Jaguars
Away Denver Broncos

Jacksonville Jaguars 78.755870781561 Denver Broncos 92.1829690155243

Score Prob 2.03433994942474E-03
Home Score Jacksonville Jaguars 27
Away Score Denver Broncos 10
Score Prob 1.92680840449129E-03
Home Score Jacksonville Jaguars 20
Away Score Denver Broncos 10
Score Prob 1.84077385644354E-03
Home Score Jacksonville Jaguars 20
Away Score Denver Broncos 10
Score Prob 1.74347386648245E-03
Home Score Jacksonville Jaguars 13
Away Score Denver Broncos 10
Score Prob 1.69563848753197E-03
Home Score Jacksonville Jaguars 27
Away Score Denver Broncos 13
Score Prob 1.67731227571191E-03
Home Score Jacksonville Jaguars 24
Away Score Denver Broncos 10
Score Prob 1.64490897719842E-03
Home Score Jacksonville Jaguars 30
Away Score Denver Broncos 10
Score Prob 1.63475075379132E-03
Home Score Jacksonville Jaguars 27
Away Score Denver Broncos 17
Score Prob 1.60601009171519E-03
Home Score Jacksonville Jaguars 20
Away Score Denver Broncos 13
Score Prob 1.5886525704379E-03
Home Score Jacksonville Jaguars 17
Away Score Denver Broncos 10
Over is 37.5
Over prob is .60127218 Kelly is 3.166100914 % Growth is 1.000352066
Under prob is .39872782 Kelly is -46.023243771 %

Hp prob is .678914775 Pay is 2.5 Kelly is 46.485795755 % Growth is 1.171654803
H prob is .782301722 Pay is 1.9 Kelly is 54.041474659 % Growth is 1.151207528
Tie prob is .12643707 Pay is 3.1 Kelly is -28.954527729 %
V prob is .091261208 Pay is 2.7 Kelly is -44.329102305 %
Vp prob is .047628484 Pay is 3.3 Kelly is -36.644608877 %
Home Jacksonville Jaguars straight up win is .835756972
Away Denver Broncos straight up win is .164243028
Spread is Jacksonville Jaguars minus 3.5 Prob of beating it is .780193631332307
Kelly Vegas point spread for Jacksonville Jaguars is 53.840662338 % Growth is 1.151325822
Kelly Vegas point spread for Denver Broncos is -63.840663438 %

Denver Broncos
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 . . 1 . . 1 1 . . 3
1 . . . . . . . . . . .
2 . . . . . . . . . . .
3 2 . . 4 . . 3 4 . 1 7
4 . . . . . . . . . . .
5 . . . . . . . . . . .
6 3 . . 5 . . 4 5 . 2 9
7 3 . . 5 . . 4 6 . 2 10
8 . . . . . . . . . . .
9 2 . . 4 . . 3 4 . 1 7
10 8 . . 13 . . 11 14 . 6 24
11 . . . . . . . . . . .
12 1 . . 2 . . 2 2 . 1 4
13 9 . . 16 . . 13 17 . 7 29
14 5 . . 9 . . 7 9 . 4 16
15 . . . 1 . . 1 1 . . 2
16 8 . . 13 . . 11 14 . 6 24
17 13 . . 21 . . 18 23 . 10 39
18 . . . . . . . . . . .
19 4 . . 8 . . 6 8 . 3 14
20 15 . . 26 . . 22 28 . 12 48
21 5 . . 9 . . 8 10 . 4 17
22 2 . . 3 . . 3 4 . 1 7
23 12 . . 21 . . 17 23 . 9 38
24 14 . . 23 . . 19 25 . 10 42
25 . . . . . . . . . . .
26 7 . . 13 . . 10 14 . 6 23
27 17 . . 28 . . 23 30 . 13 51
28 4 . . 7 . . 6 8 . 3 14
29 3 . . 6 . . 5 6 . 2 11
30 13 . . 23 . . 19 25 . 10 41
31 11 . . 18 . . 15 20 . 8 34
32 . . . . . . . . . . .
33 8 . . 13 . . 11 15 . 6 25
34 13 . . 22 . . 19 24 . 10 41
35 2 . . 4 . . 4 5 . 2 9
36 4 . . 6 . . 5 7 . 3 12
37 11 . . 18 . . 15 20 . 8 33
38 7 . . 12 . . 10 13 . 5 21
39 . . . . . . . . . . .
40 6 . . 11 . . 9 12 . 5 20
41 8 . . 14 . . 12 15 . 6 26
42 1 . . 2 . . 2 2 . 1 4
43 3 . . 5 . . 4 5 . 2 9
44 7 . . 11 . . 9 12 . 5 21
45 3 . . 5 . . 4 6 . 2 10
46 . . . . . . . . . . .
47 4 . . 7 . . 5 7 . 3 13
48 4 . . 7 . . 5 7 . 3 12
49 . . . . . . . . . . 1
50 2 . . 3 . . 2 3 . 1 6
51 3 . . 5 . . 4 6 . 2 10
52 1 . . 2 . . 1 2 . . 3
53 . . . . . . . . . . .
54 2 . . 3 . . 2 3 . 1 6
55 1 . . 2 . . 2 2 . 1 4
56 . . . . . . . . . . .
57 1 . . 1 . . 1 1 . . 3
58 1 . . 2 . . 1 2 . . 3
59 . . . . . . . . . . .
60 . . . . . . . . . . .
61 . . . 1 . . 1 1 . . 2
62 . . . . . . . . . . 1
63 . . . . . . . . . . .
64 . . . . . . . . . . 1
Prob of Jacksonville Jaguars scoring a safety is zero
Prob of Jacksonville Jaguars scoring a single is zero
Prob of Denver Broncos scoring a single is zero

Most probable score is Jacksonville Jaguars 28.5 - Denver Broncos 11.5

Game # 6
Date Oct 2 2004
Home Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Away Detroit Lions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 81.8337297520419 Detroit Lions 84.1962487138828

Score Prob 4.10360168525499E-02
Home Score Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
Away Score Detroit Lions 0
Score Prob 3.48383070922104E-02
Home Score Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24
Away Score Detroit Lions 0
Score Prob 3.22241964793839E-02
Home Score Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10
Away Score Detroit Lions 0
Score Prob .030859744527491
Home Score Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14
Away Score Detroit Lions 0
Score Prob 2.72840022642221E-02
Home Score Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20
Away Score Detroit Lions 0
Score Prob 2.61989671292643E-02
Home Score Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21
Away Score Detroit Lions 0
Score Prob 2.42331139138245E-02
Home Score Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7
Away Score Detroit Lions 0
Score Prob 2.31632727172562E-02
Home Score Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27
Away Score Detroit Lions 0
Score Prob 2.21824826239637E-02
Home Score Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31
Away Score Detroit Lions 0
Score Prob 2.14252044214086E-02
Home Score Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13
Away Score Detroit Lions 0
Over is 34.5
Over prob is .084330938 Kelly is -122.37677224 %
Under prob is .915669062 Kelly is 79.519629383 % Growth is 1.311911639

Hp prob is .839368392 Pay is 1.8 Kelly is 63.857888179 % Growth is 1.200712133
H prob is .921205942 Pay is 1.4 Kelly is 72.42207964 % Growth is 1.142085965
Tie prob is .075305758 Pay is 3.6 Kelly is -28.034587366 %
V prob is .0034883 Pay is 4. Kelly is -32.868226632 %
Vp prob is .001959654 Pay is 5.5 Kelly is -21.982709004 %
Home Tampa Bay Buccaneers straight up win is .954141416
Away Detroit Lions straight up win is .045858584
Spread is Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus 2.5 Prob of beating it is .942435516490212
Kelly Vegas point spread for Tampa Bay Buccaneers is 87.9114584 % Growth is 1.540182315
Kelly Vegas point spread for Detroit Lions is -97.9114595 %

Detroit Lions

95
1 .
2 32
3 126
4 .
5 43
6 84
7 242
8 29
9 121
10 322
11 12
12 123
13 214
14 312
15 77
16 201
17 411
18 32
19 173
20 272
21 272
22 102
23 211
24 351
25 41
26 160
27 231
28 180
29 90
30 160
31 225
32 35
33 110
34 147
35 11
36 60
37 65
38 3
39 22
40 21
41 .
42 7
43 5
44 .
45 1
Prob of Detroit Lions scoring a field goal is zero
Prob of Tampa Bay Buccaneers scoring a passing td is zero
Prob of Detroit Lions scoring a passing td is zero
Prob of Tampa Bay Buccaneers scoring a single is zero
Prob of Detroit Lions scoring a single is zero

Most probable score is Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17. - Detroit Lions .

Game # 3
Date Oct 2 2004
Home Cincinnati Bengals
Away Houston Texans

Cincinnati Bengals 82.3497768001979 Houston Texans 85.2926338738534

Score Prob 2.16547637569289E-02
Home Score Cincinnati Bengals 23
Away Score Houston Texans 0
Score Prob 2.10534120049105E-02
Home Score Cincinnati Bengals 20
Away Score Houston Texans 0
Score Prob 1.92469398081367E-02
Home Score Cincinnati Bengals 30
Away Score Houston Texans 0
Score Prob 1.87124532118139E-02
Home Score Cincinnati Bengals 27
Away Score Houston Texans 0
Score Prob 1.71420154491759E-02
Home Score Cincinnati Bengals 16
Away Score Houston Texans 0
Score Prob 1.67049690066518E-02
Home Score Cincinnati Bengals 26
Away Score Houston Texans 0
Score Prob 1.66659825014513E-02
Home Score Cincinnati Bengals 13
Away Score Houston Texans 0
Score Prob 1.52359703963461E-02
Home Score Cincinnati Bengals 23
Away Score Houston Texans 0
Score Prob 1.48475197687133E-02
Home Score Cincinnati Bengals 33
Away Score Houston Texans 0
Score Prob 1.48128682284173E-02
Home Score Cincinnati Bengals 20
Away Score Houston Texans 0
Over is 43.5
Over prob is .129017403 Kelly is -111.524344989 %
Under prob is .870982597 Kelly is 68.667202132 % Growth is 1.211829224

Hp prob is .972616413 Pay is 1.5 Kelly is 91.78492385 % Growth is 1.348401469
H prob is .99068128 Pay is 1.2 Kelly is 94.408768063 % Growth is 1.155429891
Tie prob is .00931872 Pay is 3.9 Kelly is -33.229551462 %
V prob is . Pay is 5. Kelly is -25. %
Vp prob is . Pay is 7. Kelly is -16.666666667 %
Home Cincinnati Bengals straight up win is .997775531
Away Houston Texans straight up win is .002224469
Spread is Cincinnati Bengals minus 10.5 Prob of beating it is .93905501745204
Kelly Vegas point spread for Cincinnati Bengals is 87.201553598 % Growth is 1.52634508
Kelly Vegas point spread for Houston Texans is -97.201554698 %

Houston Texans

19
1 .
2 2
3 60
4 .
5 6
6 93
7 59
8 9
9 102
10 184
11 9
12 93
13 285
14 98
15 75
16 302
17 285
18 30
19 255
20 433
21 115
22 184
23 455
24 299
25 46
26 373
27 439
28 105
29 257
30 459
31 238
32 46
33 371
34 334
35 78
36 249
37 347
38 152
39 35
40 278
41 200
42 47
43 184
44 208
45 77
46 21
47 165
48 93
49 23
50 107
51 97
52 31
53 9
54 76
55 33
56 9
57 49
58 34
59 10
60 3
61 27
62 8
63 3
64 17
65 9
66 2
67 .
68 7
69 1
70 .
71 4
72 1
73 .
74 .
75 1
Prob of Houston Texans scoring a field goal is zero
Prob of Houston Texans scoring a passing td is zero
Prob of Houston Texans scoring a rushing td is zero
Prob of Houston Texans scoring a safety is zero
Prob of Cincinnati Bengals scoring a single is zero
Prob of Houston Texans scoring a single is zero

Most probable score is Cincinnati Bengals 30. - Houston Texans .

Game # 4
Date Oct 2 2004
Home Tennessee Titans
Away Indianapolis Colts

Tennessee Titans 89.0072475403699 Indianapolis Colts 68.5386105679036

Score Prob 4.89754486262527E-02
Home Score Tennessee Titans 0
Away Score Indianapolis Colts 7
Score Prob 3.77034750608985E-02
Home Score Tennessee Titans 7
Away Score Indianapolis Colts 7
Score Prob 3.57935537204301E-02
Home Score Tennessee Titans 0
Away Score Indianapolis Colts 0
Score Prob 3.35059573418894E-02
Home Score Tennessee Titans 0
Away Score Indianapolis Colts 14
Score Prob 2.93398554476703E-02
Home Score Tennessee Titans 0
Away Score Indianapolis Colts 14
Score Prob 2.75554670328382E-02
Home Score Tennessee Titans 7
Away Score Indianapolis Colts 0
Score Prob 2.57943737620871E-02
Home Score Tennessee Titans 7
Away Score Indianapolis Colts 14
Score Prob 2.25871235321085E-02
Home Score Tennessee Titans 7
Away Score Indianapolis Colts 14
Score Prob 2.14429417508777E-02
Home Score Tennessee Titans 0
Away Score Indianapolis Colts 7
Score Prob 2.00725051555707E-02
Home Score Tennessee Titans 0
Away Score Indianapolis Colts 21
Over is 45.5
Over prob is .004907928 Kelly is -141.665217385 %
Under prob is .995092072 Kelly is 98.808074528 % Growth is 1.651011186

Hp prob is .076095057 Pay is 5.5 Kelly is -12.921715252 %
H prob is .159576128 Pay is 4. Kelly is -12.056516235 %
Tie prob is .226199541 Pay is 3.6 Kelly is -7.141602012 %
V prob is .614224331 Pay is 1.4 Kelly is -35.021484241 %
Vp prob is .310948366 Pay is 1.8 Kelly is -55.036617666 %
Home Tennessee Titans straight up win is .238097941
Away Indianapolis Colts straight up win is .761902059
Spread is Tennessee Titans plus 7.5 Prob of beating it is .663313461509229
Kelly Vegas point spread for Tennessee Titans is 29.295826547 % Growth is 1.040710489
Kelly Vegas point spread for Indianapolis Colts is -39.295827647 %

Indianapolis Colts
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
357 . . 51 . . 3 704 . . 102 . . 7 692
1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2 87 . . 12 . . . 172 . . 25 . . 1 170
3 72 . . 10 . . . 142 . . 20 . . 1 139
4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5 17 . . 2 . . . 34 . . 5 . . . 34
6 7 . . 1 . . . 14 . . 2 . . . 14
7 275 . . 40 . . 2 542 . . 78 . . 5 533
8 1 . . . . . . 3 . . . . . . 3
9 68 . . 9 . . . 134 . . 19 . . 1 131
10 55 . . 8 . . . 109 . . 15 . . 1 107
11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
12 13 . . 1 . . . 26 . . 3 . . . 26
13 5 . . . . . . 11 . . 1 . . . 10
14 106 . . 15 . . 1 208 . . 30 . . 2 205
15 1 . . . . . . 2 . . . . . . 2
16 26 . . 3 . . . 52 . . 7 . . . 51
17 21 . . 3 . . . 42 . . 6 . . . 41
18 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
19 5 . . . . . . 10 . . 1 . . . 10
20 2 . . . . . . 4 . . . . . . 4
21 27 . . 3 . . . 53 . . 7 . . . 52
22 . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 1
23 6 . . . . . . 13 . . 1 . . . 13
24 5 . . . . . . 10 . . 1 . . . 10
25 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
26 1 . . . . . . 2 . . . . . . 2
27 . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 1
28 5 . . . . . . 10 . . 1 . . . 10
29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
30 1 . . . . . . 2 . . . . . . 2
31 1 . . . . . . 2 . . . . . . 2
Prob of Tennessee Titans scoring a passing td is zero
Prob of Indianapolis Colts scoring a safety is zero
Prob of Tennessee Titans scoring a single is zero
Prob of Indianapolis Colts scoring a single is zero

Most probable score is Tennessee Titans 3.5 - Indianapolis Colts 10.5

Game # 5
Date Oct 2 2004
Home Kansas City Chiefs
Away Philadelphia Eagles

Kansas City Chiefs 84.613763504376 Philadelphia Eagles 87.3533587571349

Score Prob 1.96200240242487E-02
Home Score Kansas City Chiefs 9
Away Score Philadelphia Eagles 14
Score Prob 1.90656603136787E-02
Home Score Kansas City Chiefs 9
Away Score Philadelphia Eagles 21
Score Prob 1.80973462792908E-02
Home Score Kansas City Chiefs 6
Away Score Philadelphia Eagles 14
Score Prob .017586005823109
Home Score Kansas City Chiefs 6
Away Score Philadelphia Eagles 21
Score Prob 1.59531128254118E-02
Home Score Kansas City Chiefs 12
Away Score Philadelphia Eagles 14
Score Prob .015502357678012
Home Score Kansas City Chiefs 12
Away Score Philadelphia Eagles 21
Score Prob .013460337814296
Home Score Kansas City Chiefs 9
Away Score Philadelphia Eagles 7
Score Prob .013216339245335
Home Score Kansas City Chiefs 16
Away Score Philadelphia Eagles 14
Score Prob 1.28429116259223E-02
Home Score Kansas City Chiefs 16
Away Score Philadelphia Eagles 21
Score Prob 1.24157031693988E-02
Home Score Kansas City Chiefs 6
Away Score Philadelphia Eagles 7
Over is 46.5
Over prob is .028867333 Kelly is -135.846504892 %
Under prob is .971132667 Kelly is 92.989362035 % Growth is 1.507031644

Hp prob is .197536541 Pay is 2.6 Kelly is -30.400312158 %
H prob is .292551637 Pay is 2. Kelly is -41.489672674 %
Tie prob is .244031045 Pay is 3. Kelly is -13.395343234 %
V prob is .463417318 Pay is 2.6 Kelly is 12.805314218 % Growth is 1.012930318
Vp prob is .261136606 Pay is 3.2 Kelly is -7.471039135 %
Home Kansas City Chiefs straight up win is .437880389
Away Philadelphia Eagles straight up win is .562119611
Spread is Kansas City Chiefs minus 7.5 Prob of beating it is .210860864955645
Kelly Vegas point spread for Kansas City Chiefs is -65.719219227 %
Kelly Vegas point spread for Philadelphia Eagles is 55.719218127 % Growth is 1.163728795

Philadelphia Eagles
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
8 . . 1 . . . 23 . . 3 . . . 34 . . 5 . . . 33
1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2 . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 2 . . . . . . 2
3 26 . . 4 . . . 76 . . 11 . . . 111 . . 17 . . 1 108
4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5 2 . . . . . . 6 . . . . . . 9 . . 1 . . . 8
6 42 . . 6 . . . 124 . . 19 . . 1 180 . . 27 . . 2 175
7 5 . . . . . . 15 . . 2 . . . 23 . . 3 . . . 22
8 3 . . . . . . 10 . . 1 . . . 14 . . 2 . . . 14
9 46 . . 7 . . . 135 . . 20 . . 1 198 . . 30 . . 2 192
10 17 . . 2 . . . 51 . . 7 . . . 74 . . 11 . . . 72
11 3 . . . . . . 11 . . 1 . . . 16 . . 2 . . . 15
12 38 . . 6 . . . 113 . . 17 . . 1 165 . . 25 . . 1 161
13 28 . . 4 . . . 83 . . 12 . . . 121 . . 18 . . 1 118
14 4 . . . . . . 14 . . 2 . . . 20 . . 3 . . . 20
15 26 . . 4 . . . 78 . . 12 . . . 113 . . 17 . . 1 110
16 31 . . 4 . . . 91 . . 14 . . 1 132 . . 20 . . 1 129
17 7 . . 1 . . . 23 . . 3 . . . 33 . . 5 . . . 32
18 2 . . . . . . 7 . . 1 . . . 10 . . 1 . . . 10
19 25 . . 3 . . . 75 . . 11 . . . 109 . . 16 . . 1 106
20 9 . . 1 . . . 28 . . 4 . . . 41 . . 6 . . . 39
21 2 . . . . . . 7 . . 1 . . . 10 . . 1 . . . 10
22 17 . . 2 . . . 50 . . 7 . . . 73 . . 11 . . . 71
23 10 . . 1 . . . 30 . . 4 . . . 44 . . 6 . . . 43
24 2 . . . . . . 7 . . 1 . . . 11 . . 1 . . . 11
25 . . . . . . . 2 . . . . . . 3 . . . . . . 3
26 8 . . 1 . . . 25 . . 3 . . . 36 . . 5 . . . 35
27 2 . . . . . . 6 . . . . . . 9 . . 1 . . . 8
28 . . . . . . . 2 . . . . . . 3 . . . . . . 3
29 5 . . . . . . 16 . . 2 . . . 24 . . 3 . . . 23
30 2 . . . . . . 6 . . 1 . . . 10 . . 1 . . . 9
31 . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 2 . . . . . . 2
32 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
33 1 . . . . . . 5 . . . . . . 8 . . 1 . . . 7
34 . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 1
35 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
36 1 . . . . . . 3 . . . . . . 5 . . . . . . 5
37 . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 1
38 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
39 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
40 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 1
Prob of Kansas City Chiefs scoring a passing td is zero
Prob of Philadelphia Eagles scoring a rushing td is zero
Prob of Kansas City Chiefs scoring a single is zero
Prob of Philadelphia Eagles scoring a single is zero

Most probable score is Kansas City Chiefs 12.5 - Philadelphia Eagles 17.5

Game # 1
Date Oct 2 2004
Home New England Patriots
Away San Diego Chargers

New England Patriots 85.5972315493201 San Diego Chargers 82.8189311124675

Score Prob 7.47736930892274E-03
Home Score New England Patriots 6
Away Score San Diego Chargers 10
Score Prob 7.30172181646989E-03
Home Score New England Patriots 6
Away Score San Diego Chargers 3
Score Prob 6.34406421261123E-03
Home Score New England Patriots 3
Away Score San Diego Chargers 10
Score Prob 6.19503867637414E-03
Home Score New England Patriots 3
Away Score San Diego Chargers 3
Score Prob 5.87541885960899E-03
Home Score New England Patriots 9
Away Score San Diego Chargers 10
Score Prob 5.73740205889152E-03
Home Score New England Patriots 9
Away Score San Diego Chargers 3
Score Prob 5.45821777367015E-03
Home Score New England Patriots 6
Away Score San Diego Chargers 7
Score Prob 5.39053236959149E-03
Home Score New England Patriots 13
Away Score San Diego Chargers 10
Score Prob 5.33000125451779E-03
Home Score New England Patriots 6
Away Score San Diego Chargers 0
Score Prob 5.2639058175801E-03
Home Score New England Patriots 13
Away Score San Diego Chargers 3
Over is 47.5
Over prob is .030934883 Kelly is -135.344385666 %
Under prob is .969065117 Kelly is 92.487242809 % Growth is 1.49733207

Hp prob is .437629225 Pay is 2.2 Kelly is -3.10130868 %
H prob is .588791484 Pay is 1.6 Kelly is -9.655604301 %
Tie prob is .242025414 Pay is 3.4 Kelly is -7.379732947 %
V prob is .169183102 Pay is 3.3 Kelly is -19.204163678 %
Vp prob is .09020196 Pay is 4. Kelly is -21.306405293 %
Home New England Patriots straight up win is .679282913
Away San Diego Chargers straight up win is .320717087
Spread is New England Patriots minus 6.5 Prob of beating it is .476336903586096
Kelly Vegas point spread for New England Patriots is -9.969250823 %
Kelly Vegas point spread for San Diego Chargers is -.030750277 %

San Diego Chargers
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
19 . . 26 . . 18 19 . 8 26
1 . . . . . . . . . . .
2 1 . . 2 . . 1 1 . . 2
3 45 . . 61 . . 42 46 . 19 63
4 . . . . . . . . . . .
5 3 . . 5 . . 3 3 . 1 5
6 53 . . 73 . . 50 54 . 22 74
7 25 . . 34 . . 23 26 . 10 35
8 4 . . 5 . . 4 4 . 1 6
9 43 . . 60 . . 41 45 . 18 61
10 59 . . 82 . . 56 61 . 25 83
11 3 . . 4 . . 3 3 . 1 4
12 29 . . 40 . . 27 30 . 12 41
13 70 . . 96 . . 66 72 . 30 98
14 18 . . 25 . . 17 19 . 8 26
15 17 . . 23 . . 16 17 . 7 24
16 56 . . 77 . . 53 58 . 24 79
17 40 . . 55 . . 38 41 . 17 56
18 4 . . 6 . . 4 4 . 1 6
19 35 . . 49 . . 33 36 . 15 50
20 46 . . 63 . . 43 47 . 20 65
21 10 . . 13 . . 9 10 . 4 14
22 19 . . 26 . . 18 19 . 8 26
23 37 . . 51 . . 35 38 . 15 52
24 18 . . 25 . . 17 19 . 8 26
25 3 . . 4 . . 2 3 . 1 4
26 23 . . 31 . . 21 23 . 9 32
27 20 . . 28 . . 19 21 . 8 28
28 4 . . 5 . . 3 4 . 1 5
29 11 . . 16 . . 11 12 . 5 16
30 16 . . 22 . . 15 16 . 7 23
31 6 . . 9 . . 6 6 . 2 9
32 1 . . 1 . . 1 1 . . 1
33 10 . . 13 . . 9 10 . 4 14
34 6 . . 9 . . 6 6 . 2 9
35 1 . . 1 . . 1 1 . . 1
36 5 . . 6 . . 4 5 . 2 7
37 5 . . 7 . . 5 5 . 2 7
38 1 . . 2 . . 1 1 . . 2
39 . . . . . . . . . . .
40 3 . . 4 . . 3 3 . 1 4
41 1 . . 2 . . 1 1 . . 2
42 . . . . . . . . . . .
43 1 . . 2 . . 1 1 . . 2
44 1 . . 1 . . 1 1 . . 1
45 . . . . . . . . . . .
46 . . . . . . . . . . .
47 . . . 1 . . . . . . 1
Prob of San Diego Chargers scoring a passing td is zero
Prob of New England Patriots scoring a single is zero
Prob of San Diego Chargers scoring a single is zero

Most probable score is New England Patriots 13. - San Diego Chargers 10.

Game # 9
Date Oct 2 2004
Home Washington Redskins
Away Seattle Seahawks

Washington Redskins 68.4535260722703 Seattle Seahawks 108.274663447654

Score Prob .022889300675511
Home Score Washington Redskins 16
Away Score Seattle Seahawks 3
Score Prob 2.26737649074642E-02
Home Score Washington Redskins 9
Away Score Seattle Seahawks 3
Score Prob 2.04899953988299E-02
Home Score Washington Redskins 13
Away Score Seattle Seahawks 3
Score Prob 2.02970525493226E-02
Home Score Washington Redskins 6
Away Score Seattle Seahawks 3
Score Prob .019177167022834
Home Score Washington Redskins 19
Away Score Seattle Seahawks 3
Score Prob 1.89965863453452E-02
Home Score Washington Redskins 12
Away Score Seattle Seahawks 3
Score Prob 1.84748404042419E-02
Home Score Washington Redskins 16
Away Score Seattle Seahawks 6
Score Prob 1.83008731444938E-02
Home Score Washington Redskins 9
Away Score Seattle Seahawks 6
Score Prob 1.65382682609452E-02
Home Score Washington Redskins 13
Away Score Seattle Seahawks 6
Score Prob 1.63825366201091E-02
Home Score Washington Redskins 6
Away Score Seattle Seahawks 6
Over is 36.5
Over prob is .046211398 Kelly is -131.634374724 %
Under prob is .953788602 Kelly is 88.777231867 % Growth is 1.433194131

Hp prob is .643195778 Pay is 2.6 Kelly is 42.019313867 % Growth is 1.145973964
H prob is .808923993 Pay is 2. Kelly is 61.784798676 % Growth is 1.227976572
Tie prob is .180629932 Pay is 3. Kelly is -22.905510233 %
V prob is .010446075 Pay is 2.6 Kelly is -60.802512839 %
Vp prob is .005223037 Pay is 3.2 Kelly is -44.694830921 %
Home Washington Redskins straight up win is .887780326
Away Seattle Seahawks straight up win is .112219674
Spread is Washington Redskins minus 1.5 Prob of beating it is .873521590620824
Kelly Vegas point spread for Washington Redskins is 73.439533891 % Growth is 1.321866544
Kelly Vegas point spread for Seattle Seahawks is -83.439534991 %

Seattle Seahawks
1 2 3 4 5 6
22 . . 36 . . 29
1 . . . . . . .
2 2 . . 3 . . 3
3 75 . . 121 . . 97
4 . . . . . . .
5 7 . . 12 . . 10
6 125 . . 202 . . 163
7 23 . . 37 . . 30
8 12 . . 20 . . 16
9 142 . . 230 . . 186
10 77 . . 125 . . 101
11 14 . . 23 . . 18
12 125 . . 202 . . 163
13 129 . . 209 . . 169
14 24 . . 38 . . 31
15 92 . . 148 . . 120
16 146 . . 236 . . 190
17 48 . . 77 . . 62
18 14 . . 24 . . 19
19 125 . . 202 . . 163
20 67 . . 108 . . 87
21 16 . . 26 . . 21
22 88 . . 142 . . 115
23 75 . . 121 . . 98
24 22 . . 35 . . 28
25 7 . . 12 . . 10
26 64 . . 103 . . 83
27 23 . . 37 . . 30
28 7 . . 12 . . 9
29 44 . . 71 . . 57
30 25 . . 41 . . 33
31 7 . . 12 . . 10
32 2 . . 4 . . 3
33 22 . . 35 . . 28
34 5 . . 9 . . 7
35 2 . . 3 . . 3
36 15 . . 24 . . 19
37 6 . . 10 . . 8
38 2 . . 3 . . 2
39 . . . 1 . . .
40 5 . . 9 . . 7
41 1 . . 1 . . 1
42 . . . . . . .
43 3 . . 6 . . 5
44 1 . . 2 . . 1
45 . . . . . . .
46 . . . . . . .
47 1 . . 1 . . 1
48 . . . . . . .
49 . . . . . . .
50 . . . 1 . . 1
Prob of Seattle Seahawks scoring a passing td is zero
Prob of Seattle Seahawks scoring a rushing td is zero
Prob of Seattle Seahawks scoring a safety is zero
Prob of Washington Redskins scoring a single is zero
Prob of Seattle Seahawks scoring a single is zero

Most probable score is Washington Redskins 17.5 - Seattle Seahawks 4.5

Game # 7
Date Oct 2 2004
Home New York Giants
Away Saint Louis Rams

New York Giants 82.9650237564195 Saint Louis Rams 63.9233932424788

Score Prob 1.58440242058652E-03
Home Score New York Giants 38
Away Score Saint Louis Rams 21
Score Prob 1.57538253636034E-03
Home Score New York Giants 31
Away Score Saint Louis Rams 21
Score Prob 1.32098805065049E-03
Home Score New York Giants 31
Away Score Saint Louis Rams 21
Score Prob 1.31346776468891E-03
Home Score New York Giants 24
Away Score Saint Louis Rams 21
Score Prob 1.30654536751108E-03
Home Score New York Giants 41
Away Score Saint Louis Rams 21
Score Prob 1.2991073026621E-03
Home Score New York Giants 34
Away Score Saint Louis Rams 21
Score Prob 1.26689565391313E-03
Home Score New York Giants 45
Away Score Saint Louis Rams 21
Score Prob 1.25968331191184E-03
Home Score New York Giants 38
Away Score Saint Louis Rams 21
Score Prob 1.19510546125521E-03
Home Score New York Giants 45
Away Score Saint Louis Rams 21
Score Prob 1.16454210143535E-03
Home Score New York Giants 38
Away Score Saint Louis Rams 24
Over is 46.5
Over prob is .741823942 Kelly is 37.300100292 % Growth is 1.052925742
Under prob is .258176058 Kelly is -80.157243149 %

Hp prob is .790503877 Pay is 2.5 Kelly is 65.083979425 % Growth is 1.374457431
H prob is .868255085 Pay is 1.9 Kelly is 72.187184705 % Growth is 1.304792848
Tie prob is .084327446 Pay is 3.1 Kelly is -35.170710411 %
V prob is .047417469 Pay is 2.7 Kelly is -51.292519638 %
Vp prob is .02518243 Pay is 3.3 Kelly is -39.865129574 %
Home New York Giants straight up win is .898264763
Away Saint Louis Rams straight up win is .101735237
Spread is New York Giants minus 7.5 Prob of beating it is .784228129845299
Kelly Vegas point spread for New York Giants is 54.68790703 % Growth is 1.156835419
Kelly Vegas point spread for Saint Louis Rams is -64.68790813 %

Saint Louis Rams
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . .
4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7 . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 2 . . 2 . . . 3 . . 2
8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10 . . . . . . . 2 . . 1 . . . 4 . . 3 . . 1 6 . . 4
11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
12 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
13 . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 3 . . 2 . . 1 5 . . 3
14 . . . . . . . 3 . . 2 . . . 7 . . 5 . . 2 10 . . 7
15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
16 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 . . 1 . . . 2 . . 2
17 1 . . . . . . 5 . . 4 . . 1 12 . . 8 . . 3 17 . . 12
18 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
19 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . .
20 1 . . . . . . 4 . . 3 . . 1 10 . . 7 . . 2 14 . . 10
21 1 . . 1 . . . 6 . . 4 . . 1 13 . . 9 . . 3 19 . . 14
22 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
23 . . . . . . . 2 . . 1 . . . 5 . . 4 . . 1 7 . . 5
24 2 . . 1 . . . 10 . . 7 . . 2 22 . . 16 . . 5 31 . 1 23
25 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
26 . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 2 . . 1 . . . 3 . . 2
27 1 . . 1 . . . 8 . . 6 . . 2 18 . . 13 . . 4 26 . 1 19
28 1 . . 1 . . . 8 . . 6 . . 2 18 . . 13 . . 4 26 . 1 19
29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . .
30 1 . . . . . . 4 . . 3 . . 1 10 . . 7 . . 2 14 . . 10
31 3 . . 2 . . . 13 . . 10 . . 3 29 . . 21 . . 8 43 . 1 31
32 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
33 . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 4 . . 3 . . 1 5 . . 4
34 2 . . 1 . . . 11 . . 8 . . 3 24 . . 18 . . 6 35 . 1 26
35 2 . . 1 . . . 8 . . 6 . . 2 19 . . 14 . . 5 27 . 1 20
36 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 1 . . 1
37 1 . . 1 . . . 6 . . 4 . . 1 13 . . 9 . . 3 19 . . 14
38 3 . . 2 . . . 14 . . 10 . . 3 31 . . 23 . . 8 45 . 2 33
39 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
40 . . . . . . . 2 . . 1 . . . 5 . . 4 . . 1 8 . . 5
41 2 . . 2 . . . 12 . . 8 . . 3 26 . . 19 . . 7 37 . 1 27
42 1 . . 1 . . . 7 . . 5 . . 1 16 . . 11 . . 4 23 . 1 17
43 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 2 . . 1
44 1 . . 1 . . . 6 . . 4 . . 1 14 . . 10 . . 3 20 . . 15
45 2 . . 2 . . . 12 . . 8 . . 3 26 . . 19 . . 7 38 . 1 28
46 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
47 . . . . . . . 2 . . 2 . . . 5 . . 4 . . 1 8 . . 6
48 2 . . 1 . . . 10 . . 7 . . 2 21 . . 16 . . 5 31 . 1 23
49 1 . . . . . . 4 . . 3 . . 1 10 . . 7 . . 2 14 . . 10
50 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 2 . . 2
51 1 . . . . . . 5 . . 4 . . 1 11 . . 8 . . 3 17 . . 12
52 1 . . 1 . . . 7 . . 5 . . 2 16 . . 12 . . 4 24 . 1 17
53 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
54 . . . . . . . 2 . . 1 . . . 4 . . 3 . . 1 7 . . 5
55 1 . . 1 . . . 6 . . 4 . . 1 13 . . 10 . . 3 20 . . 14
56 . . . . . . . 2 . . 1 . . . 4 . . 3 . . 1 6 . . 5
57 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 2 . . 1
58 . . . . . . . 3 . . 2 . . . 7 . . 5 . . 2 11 . . 8
59 . . . . . . . 3 . . 2 . . . 7 . . 5 . . 2 11 . . 8
60 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
61 . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 3 . . 2 . . . 4 . . 3
62 . . . . . . . 3 . . 2 . . . 6 . . 4 . . 1 9 . . 6
63 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 2 . . 1
64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 1 . . 1
65 . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 3 . . 2 . . . 5 . . 3
66 . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 2 . . 1 . . . 3 . . 2
67 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
68 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 2 . . 1
69 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 2 . . 2
70 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
71 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 1 . . 1
Prob of Saint Louis Rams scoring a rushing td is zero
Prob of New York Giants scoring a safety is zero
Prob of Saint Louis Rams scoring a safety is zero
Prob of New York Giants scoring a single is zero
Prob of Saint Louis Rams scoring a single is zero

Most probable score is New York Giants 36. - Saint Louis Rams 19.

Game # 10
Date Oct 2 2004
Home Baltimore Ravens
Away New York Jets

Baltimore Ravens 71.6824564917319 New York Jets 70.7116771131

Score Prob 1.34368214270997E-03
Home Score Baltimore Ravens 7
Away Score New York Jets 17
Score Prob 1.27491089181799E-03
Home Score Baltimore Ravens 7
Away Score New York Jets 20
Score Prob 1.19823727078867E-03
Home Score Baltimore Ravens 14
Away Score New York Jets 17
Score Prob 1.13691006150438E-03
Home Score Baltimore Ravens 14
Away Score New York Jets 20
Score Prob 1.12154573703835E-03
Home Score Baltimore Ravens 7
Away Score New York Jets 24
Score Prob 1.09306021094233E-03
Home Score Baltimore Ravens 10
Away Score New York Jets 17
Score Prob 1.07695222871517E-03
Home Score Baltimore Ravens 14
Away Score New York Jets 17
Score Prob 1.06414369170556E-03
Home Score Baltimore Ravens 7
Away Score New York Jets 27
Score Prob 1.03711608872965E-03
Home Score Baltimore Ravens 10
Away Score New York Jets 20
Score Prob 1.02183253219954E-03
Home Score Baltimore Ravens 14
Away Score New York Jets 20
Over is 31.5
Over prob is .744056149 Kelly is 37.842207693 % Growth is 1.054583179
Under prob is .255943851 Kelly is -80.69935055 %

Hp prob is .206555162 Pay is 1.8 Kelly is -78.525088488 %
H prob is .293070796 Pay is 1.4 Kelly is -147.425221516 %
Tie prob is .152403502 Pay is 3.6 Kelly is -17.35951505 %
V prob is .554525702 Pay is 4. Kelly is 40.603426922 % Growth is 1.233309971
Vp prob is .279114229 Pay is 5.5 Kelly is 11.891739118 % Growth is 1.028771431
Home Baltimore Ravens straight up win is .424525891
Away New York Jets straight up win is .575474109
Spread is Baltimore Ravens minus 2.5 Prob of beating it is .383092324597144
Kelly Vegas point spread for Baltimore Ravens is -29.550612513 %
Kelly Vegas point spread for New York Jets is 19.550611413 % Growth is 1.017737541

New York Jets
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
1 . . 3 . . 2 5 . 1 9 . . 9 7 . 5 15 . 2 14 7 . 9 13 . 4 12
1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3 1 . . 2 . . 2 4 . 1 7 . . 7 6 . 4 12 . 2 11 5 . 7 11 . 3 10
4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6 . . . 1 . . . 1 . . 3 . . 3 2 . 1 5 . . 4 2 . 3 4 . 1 4
7 4 . . 7 . . 7 13 . 4 24 . 2 23 20 . 14 39 . 7 37 18 . 23 34 . 11 33
8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 1 . . 1
10 3 . . 6 . . 6 10 . 3 20 . 1 19 16 . 12 31 . 5 30 14 . 19 28 . 9 27
11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
12 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
13 1 . . 2 . . 2 4 . 1 8 . . 7 6 . 4 12 . 2 12 6 . 7 11 . 3 10
14 5 . . 10 . . 9 16 . 6 32 . 2 30 26 . 19 50 . 9 47 23 . 30 45 . 14 42
15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
16 . . . . . . . 1 . . 2 . . 2 1 . 1 3 . . 3 1 . 2 3 . . 2
17 4 . . 8 . . 7 13 . 4 26 . 2 24 21 . 15 41 . 7 38 19 . 24 36 . 11 34
18 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
19 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
20 1 . . 3 . . 3 5 . 2 10 . . 10 8 . 6 16 . 3 15 7 . 10 14 . 4 14
21 4 . . 8 . . 8 14 . 5 27 . 2 26 22 . 16 43 . 7 41 20 . 26 38 . 12 36
22 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
23 . . . . . . . 1 . . 2 . . 2 2 . 1 4 . . 4 2 . 2 4 . 1 3
24 3 . . 7 . . 6 11 . 4 22 . 2 21 18 . 13 35 . 6 33 16 . 21 31 . 10 30
25 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
26 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
27 1 . . 2 . . 2 4 . 1 9 . . 8 7 . 5 14 . 2 13 6 . 8 12 . 4 12
28 2 . . 5 . . 5 9 . 3 17 . 1 16 14 . 10 28 . 5 26 13 . 16 25 . 8 23
29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
30 . . . . . . . 1 . . 2 . . 2 2 . 1 3 . . 3 1 . 2 3 . 1 3
31 2 . . 4 . . 4 7 . 2 14 . 1 13 12 . 8 22 . 4 21 10 . 13 20 . 6 19
32 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
33 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
34 . . . 1 . . 1 3 . 1 5 . . 5 4 . 3 9 . 1 8 4 . 5 8 . 2 7
35 1 . . 2 . . 2 4 . 1 9 . . 8 7 . 5 14 . 2 13 6 . 8 12 . 4 12
36 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
37 . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 1 . . 2 . . 2 1 . 1 2 . . 2
38 1 . . 2 . . 2 3 . 1 7 . . 7 6 . 4 11 . 2 11 5 . 7 10 . 3 10
39 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
40 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
41 . . . . . . . 1 . . 3 . . 2 2 . 1 4 . . 4 2 . 2 4 . 1 4
42 . . . 1 . . 1 1 . . 3 . . 3 2 . 2 5 . . 5 2 . 3 4 . 1 4
43 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 1 . . 1
45 . . . . . . . 1 . . 2 . . 2 2 . 1 4 . . 4 2 . 2 4 . 1 3
46 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
48 . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 1 . . 1 . . 1 1 . . 1
49 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 1 . . 1
50 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
51 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
52 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 1 . . 1
Prob of Baltimore Ravens scoring a safety is zero
Prob of Baltimore Ravens scoring a single is zero
Prob of New York Jets scoring a single is zero

Most probable score is Baltimore Ravens 19. - New York Jets 22.

Game # 11
Date Oct 2 2004
Home Oakland Raiders
Away Dallas Cowboys

Oakland Raiders 82.9702931474936 Dallas Cowboys 85.3383888821644

Score Prob 3.4392192253835E-03
Home Score Oakland Raiders 28
Away Score Dallas Cowboys 28
Score Prob 3.27994296930703E-03
Home Score Oakland Raiders 35
Away Score Dallas Cowboys 28
Score Prob 3.27454247060478E-03
Home Score Oakland Raiders 28
Away Score Dallas Cowboys 21
Score Prob 3.12289268299254E-03
Home Score Oakland Raiders 35
Away Score Dallas Cowboys 21
Score Prob 3.10968645724836E-03
Home Score Oakland Raiders 28
Away Score Dallas Cowboys 35
Score Prob 2.96567143987854E-03
Home Score Oakland Raiders 35
Away Score Dallas Cowboys 35
Score Prob 2.96078839620605E-03
Home Score Oakland Raiders 28
Away Score Dallas Cowboys 28
Score Prob 2.87504977046278E-03
Home Score Oakland Raiders 21
Away Score Dallas Cowboys 28
Score Prob 2.82366910840323E-03
Home Score Oakland Raiders 35
Away Score Dallas Cowboys 28
Score Prob 2.74190118833895E-03
Home Score Oakland Raiders 28
Away Score Dallas Cowboys 28
Over is 34.5
Over prob is .914835563 Kelly is 79.317208273 % Growth is 1.309701563
Under prob is .085164437 Kelly is -122.17435113 %

Hp prob is .499738402 Pay is 2.2 Kelly is 8.285373721 % Growth is 1.004110267
H prob is .640145745 Pay is 1.6 Kelly is 4.038865291 % Growth is 1.000492232
Tie prob is .161989684 Pay is 3.4 Kelly is -18.718128103 %
V prob is .197864571 Pay is 3.3 Kelly is -15.088996308 %
Vp prob is .100306026 Pay is 4. Kelly is -19.959196483 %
Home Oakland Raiders straight up win is .672332262
Away Dallas Cowboys straight up win is .327667738
Spread is Oakland Raiders minus 2.5 Prob of beating it is .671771341963409
Kelly Vegas point spread for Oakland Raiders is 31.071981451 % Growth is 1.046021165
Kelly Vegas point spread for Dallas Cowboys is -41.071982551 %

Dallas Cowboys
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
. . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 4 . . . . . . 6 . . . . . . 5
1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 2 . . . . . . 2
4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7 1 . . . . . . 9 . . . . . . 22 . . . . . . 32 . . . . . . 28
8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10 . . . . . . . 3 . . . . . . 7 . . . . . . 11 . . . . . . 10
11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
12 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
13 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 1
14 4 . . . . . . 23 . . . . . . 55 . . . . . . 81 . . . . . . 72
15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
16 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
17 1 . . . . . . 8 . . . . . . 19 . . . . . . 28 . . . . . . 25
18 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
19 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
20 . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 3 . . . . . . 4 . . . . . . 4
21 8 . . . . . . 38 . . . . . . 92 . . . . . . 136 . . . . . . 121
22 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
23 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
24 2 . . . . . . 13 . . . . . . 32 . . . . . . 47 . . . . . . 42
25 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
26 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
27 . . . . . . . 2 . . . . . . 5 . . . . . . 8 . . . . . . 7
28 10 . . . . . . 48 . . . . . . 116 . . . . . . 171 . . . . . . 151
29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
30 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
31 3 . . . . . . 16 . . . . . . 40 . . . . . . 59 . . . . . . 52
32 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
33 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
34 . . . . . . . 2 . . . . . . 6 . . . . . . 10 . . . . . . 9
35 10 . . . . . . 48 . . . . . . 116 . . . . . . 171 . . . . . . 152
36 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
37 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 1
38 3 . . . . . . 16 . . . . . . 40 . . . . . . 59 . . . . . . 52
39 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
40 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
41 . . . . . . . 2 . . . . . . 6 . . . . . . 10 . . . . . . 9
42 6 . . . . . . 32 . . . . . . 78 . . . . . . 114 . . . . . . 101
43 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 1
45 2 . . . . . . 11 . . . . . . 27 . . . . . . 39 . . . . . . 35
46 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
48 . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 4 . . . . . . 6 . . . . . . 6
49 3 . . . . . . 14 . . . . . . 36 . . . . . . 52 . . . . . . 46
50 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
51 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
52 1 . . . . . . 5 . . . . . . 12 . . . . . . 18 . . . . . . 16
53 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
54 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
55 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 . . . . . . 3 . . . . . . 2
56 1 . . . . . . 4 . . . . . . 11 . . . . . . 17 . . . . . . 15
57 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
58 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
59 . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 4 . . . . . . 6 . . . . . . 5
60 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
61 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
62 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . .
63 . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 2 . . . . . . 3 . . . . . . 3
64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
65 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
66 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 1
Prob of Dallas Cowboys scoring a field goal is zero
Prob of Oakland Raiders scoring a safety is zero
Prob of Dallas Cowboys scoring a safety is zero
Prob of Oakland Raiders scoring a single is zero
Prob of Dallas Cowboys scoring a single is zero

Most probable score is Oakland Raiders 28. - Dallas Cowboys 21.

Game # 12
Date Oct 2 2004
Home Atlanta Falcons
Away Minnesota Vikings

Atlanta Falcons 69.8689434880399 Minnesota Vikings 96.7586702012676

Score Prob 2.70708786924751E-03
Home Score Atlanta Falcons 21
Away Score Minnesota Vikings 10
Score Prob 2.58413974789341E-03
Home Score Atlanta Falcons 21
Away Score Minnesota Vikings 13
Score Prob 2.51110347370089E-03
Home Score Atlanta Falcons 28
Away Score Minnesota Vikings 10
Score Prob 2.47095613761497E-03
Home Score Atlanta Falcons 28
Away Score Minnesota Vikings 10
Score Prob 2.39705639819791E-03
Home Score Atlanta Falcons 28
Away Score Minnesota Vikings 13
Score Prob 2.35873243829611E-03
Home Score Atlanta Falcons 28
Away Score Minnesota Vikings 13
Score Prob 2.29206691478849E-03
Home Score Atlanta Falcons 35
Away Score Minnesota Vikings 10
Score Prob 2.1879678478936E-03
Home Score Atlanta Falcons 35
Away Score Minnesota Vikings 13
Score Prob 2.06128084308772E-03
Home Score Atlanta Falcons 21
Away Score Minnesota Vikings 17
Score Prob 1.97719002245571E-03
Home Score Atlanta Falcons 14
Away Score Minnesota Vikings 10
Over is 44.5
Over prob is .549489374 Kelly is -9.409723535 %
Under prob is .450510626 Kelly is -33.447419322 %

Hp prob is .653914802 Pay is 2.5 Kelly is 42.31913373 % Growth is 1.13994017
H prob is .747641878 Pay is 1.9 Kelly is 46.724396557 % Growth is 1.109080684
Tie prob is .113380606 Pay is 3.1 Kelly is -30.881910534 %
V prob is .138977516 Pay is 2.7 Kelly is -36.75062989 %
Vp prob is .069549364 Pay is 3.3 Kelly is -33.49943914 %
Home Atlanta Falcons straight up win is .820767837
Away Minnesota Vikings straight up win is .179232163
Spread is Atlanta Falcons minus 6.5 Prob of beating it is .701056553339064
Kelly Vegas point spread for Atlanta Falcons is 37.221875872 % Growth is 1.067322408
Kelly Vegas point spread for Minnesota Vikings is -47.221876972 %

Minnesota Vikings
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1 . . 2 . . 2 2 . 1 5 . . 5 2 . 3 5 . 1 5
1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3 . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . 1 1 . . 1
4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7 6 . . 11 . . 11 12 . 7 24 . 3 22 12 . 14 24 . 6 23
8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10 2 . . 4 . . 3 4 . 2 8 . 1 7 4 . 5 8 . 2 8
11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
12 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
13 . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 1 . . 1
14 14 . . 26 . . 25 28 . 16 55 . 7 52 29 . 33 56 . 16 54
15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
16 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
17 4 . . 9 . . 8 9 . 5 19 . 2 18 10 . 11 19 . 5 18
18 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
19 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
20 . . . 1 . . 1 1 . . 3 . . 3 1 . 1 3 . . 3
21 21 . . 41 . . 39 44 . 25 84 . 11 80 45 . 51 86 . 24 82
22 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
23 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
24 7 . . 14 . . 13 15 . 8 29 . 4 27 15 . 17 29 . 8 28
25 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
26 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
27 1 . . 2 . . 2 2 . 1 5 . . 4 2 . 3 5 . 1 4
28 24 . . 47 . . 45 50 . 28 97 . 13 92 52 . 59 99 . 28 95
29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
30 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
31 8 . . 16 . . 15 17 . 9 33 . 4 31 18 . 20 34 . 9 32
32 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
33 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
34 1 . . 2 . . 2 3 . 1 5 . . 5 3 . 3 5 . 1 5
35 22 . . 43 . . 41 46 . 26 88 . 12 84 47 . 53 90 . 25 86
36 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
37 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
38 7 . . 14 . . 14 15 . 9 30 . 4 29 16 . 18 31 . 8 29
39 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
40 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
41 1 . . 2 . . 2 2 . 1 5 . . 5 2 . 3 5 . 1 5
42 15 . . 30 . . 29 32 . 18 62 . 8 59 33 . 37 64 . 18 61
43 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
45 5 . . 10 . . 10 11 . 6 21 . 3 20 11 . 13 22 . 6 21
46 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
48 . . . 1 . . 1 1 . 1 3 . . 3 1 . 2 3 . 1 3
49 8 . . 16 . . 15 17 . 9 33 . 4 31 18 . 20 34 . 9 32
50 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
51 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
52 2 . . 5 . . 5 6 . 3 11 . 1 11 6 . 7 11 . 3 11
53 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
54 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
55 . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . 1 1 . 1 2 . . 1
56 3 . . 6 . . 6 6 . 3 13 . 1 12 7 . 8 13 . 3 12
57 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
58 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
59 1 . . 2 . . 2 2 . 1 4 . . 4 2 . 2 4 . 1 4
60 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
61 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
62 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
63 . . . 1 . . 1 1 . . 3 . . 3 1 . 2 3 . . 3
64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
65 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
66 . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 1 . . 1
Prob of Atlanta Falcons scoring a safety is zero
Prob of Atlanta Falcons scoring a single is zero
Prob of Minnesota Vikings scoring a single is zero

Most probable score is Atlanta Falcons 33. - Minnesota Vikings 15.

Game # 13
Date Oct 2 2004
Home Arizona Cardinals
Away San Francisco Forty Niners

Arizona Cardinals 58.0783085062891 San Francisco Forty 74.8597980574589

Score Prob 8.55470404694899E-03
Home Score Arizona Cardinals 19
Away Score San Francisco Forty Niners 14
Score Prob 7.93133843011279E-03
Home Score Arizona Cardinals 16
Away Score San Francisco Forty Niners 14
Score Prob 7.38165059788979E-03
Home Score Arizona Cardinals 22
Away Score San Francisco Forty Niners 14
Score Prob 6.89590903084181E-03
Home Score Arizona Cardinals 26
Away Score San Francisco Forty Niners 14
Score Prob 6.39341676891603E-03
Home Score Arizona Cardinals 23
Away Score San Francisco Forty Niners 14
Score Prob 5.95031584273935E-03
Home Score Arizona Cardinals 29
Away Score San Francisco Forty Niners 14
Score Prob 5.71631958295079E-03
Home Score Arizona Cardinals 19
Away Score San Francisco Forty Niners 7
Score Prob 5.51504724310883E-03
Home Score Arizona Cardinals 13
Away Score San Francisco Forty Niners 14
Score Prob 5.30625918958444E-03
Home Score Arizona Cardinals 12
Away Score San Francisco Forty Niners 14
Score Prob 5.29978184379547E-03
Home Score Arizona Cardinals 16
Away Score San Francisco Forty Niners 7
Over is 42.5
Over prob is .168280556 Kelly is -101.989007808 %
Under prob is .831719444 Kelly is 59.131864951 % Growth is 1.147402163

Hp prob is .608015308 Pay is 2.7 Kelly is 37.743607693 % Growth is 1.122575985
H prob is .73899511 Pay is 2.1 Kelly is 50.171793675 % Growth is 1.153678511
Tie prob is .201163946 Pay is 2.9 Kelly is -21.927608189 %
V prob is .059840944 Pay is 2.5 Kelly is -56.693176012 %
Vp prob is .039987497 Pay is 3.1 Kelly is -41.716131405 %
Home Arizona Cardinals straight up win is .814627249
Away San Francisco Forty Niners straight up win is .185372751
Spread is Arizona Cardinals minus 2.5 Prob of beating it is .737415212828163
Kelly Vegas point spread for Arizona Cardinals is 44.857194405 % Growth is 1.100661066
Kelly Vegas point spread for San Francisco Forty Niners is -54.857195505 %

San Francisco Forty Niners
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
. . . . . . . 2 . . . . . . 3 . . 1
1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3 3 . . 1 . . . 10 . . 3 . . . 15 . . 5
4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . .
6 7 . . 2 . . . 22 . . 7 . . 1 34 . . 11
7 1 . . . . . . 3 . . 1 . . . 5 . . 1
8 . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 2 . . .
9 11 . . 3 . . . 33 . . 10 . . 1 49 . . 16
10 5 . . 1 . . . 17 . . 5 . . . 25 . . 8
11 . . . . . . . 2 . . . . . . 3 . . 1
12 12 . . 4 . . . 36 . . 12 . . 1 55 . . 17
13 12 . . 4 . . . 36 . . 12 . . 1 55 . . 18
14 1 . . . . . . 5 . . 1 . . . 8 . . 2
15 11 . . 3 . . . 33 . . 10 . . 1 50 . . 16
16 17 . . 5 . . . 53 . . 17 . . 2 79 . . 26
17 5 . . 1 . . . 16 . . 5 . . . 24 . . 7
18 1 . . . . . . 4 . . 1 . . . 6 . . 1
19 19 . . 6 . . 1 58 . . 19 . . 3 87 . . 28
20 9 . . 3 . . . 29 . . 9 . . 1 44 . . 14
21 2 . . . . . . 6 . . 1 . . . 9 . . 2
22 17 . . 5 . . . 51 . . 16 . . 2 77 . . 25
23 14 . . 4 . . . 42 . . 14 . . 2 64 . . 20
24 3 . . 1 . . . 11 . . 3 . . . 16 . . 5
25 1 . . . . . . 3 . . 1 . . . 4 . . 1
26 15 . . 5 . . . 46 . . 15 . . 2 69 . . 22
27 5 . . 1 . . . 15 . . 5 . . . 23 . . 7
28 1 . . . . . . 4 . . 1 . . . 6 . . 2
29 13 . . 4 . . . 40 . . 13 . . 2 61 . . 20
30 7 . . 2 . . . 23 . . 7 . . 1 34 . . 11
31 2 . . . . . . 6 . . 1 . . . 9 . . 2
32 . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 2 . . .
33 8 . . 2 . . . 24 . . 8 . . 1 37 . . 12
34 2 . . . . . . 6 . . 2 . . . 9 . . 3
35 . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 2 . . .
36 7 . . 2 . . . 21 . . 7 . . 1 32 . . 10
37 3 . . 1 . . . 9 . . 3 . . . 13 . . 4
38 . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . 2 . . .
39 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . .
40 3 . . 1 . . . 9 . . 3 . . . 14 . . 4
41 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
42 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . .
43 2 . . . . . . 8 . . 2 . . . 12 . . 4
Prob of Arizona Cardinals scoring a passing td is zero
Prob of San Francisco Forty Niners scoring a passing td is zero
Prob of Arizona Cardinals scoring a single is zero
Prob of San Francisco Forty Niners scoring a single is zero

Most probable score is Arizona Cardinals 22.5 - San Francisco Forty Niners 10.5

Game # 14
Date Oct 3 2004
Home Carolina Panthers
Away Green Bay Packers

Carolina Panthers 83.3519955490843 Green Bay Packers 72.5862762732273

Score Prob 1.8569722186396E-03
Home Score Carolina Panthers 24
Away Score Green Bay Packers 24
Score Prob 1.66197992288788E-03
Home Score Carolina Panthers 24
Away Score Green Bay Packers 21
Score Prob 1.64228663465495E-03
Home Score Carolina Panthers 31
Away Score Green Bay Packers 24
Score Prob 1.61621593932793E-03
Home Score Carolina Panthers 31
Away Score Green Bay Packers 24
Score Prob 1.61064589648928E-03
Home Score Carolina Panthers 24
Away Score Green Bay Packers 17
Score Prob 1.58748529095401E-03
Home Score Carolina Panthers 27
Away Score Green Bay Packers 24
Score Prob 1.46983750592843E-03
Home Score Carolina Panthers 31
Away Score Green Bay Packers 21
Score Prob 1.44650437699182E-03
Home Score Carolina Panthers 31
Away Score Green Bay Packers 21
Score Prob 1.4415192192848E-03
Home Score Carolina Panthers 24
Away Score Green Bay Packers 14
Score Prob 1.42936432178778E-03
Home Score Carolina Panthers 38
Away Score Green Bay Packers 24
Over is 43.5
Over prob is .703384173 Kelly is 27.964727632 % Growth is 1.028862797
Under prob is .296615827 Kelly is -70.821870489 %

Hp prob is .682490923 Pay is 1.6 Kelly is 15.330912798 % Growth is 1.007243919
H prob is .780668221 Pay is 1.3 Kelly is 4.956228897 % Growth is 1.000372916
Tie prob is .119788462 Pay is 3.8 Kelly is -19.457280131 %
V prob is .099543317 Pay is 4.5 Kelly is -15.773002065 %
Vp prob is .052010013 Pay is 6.2 Kelly is -13.029575346 %
Home Carolina Panthers straight up win is .830853431
Away Green Bay Packers straight up win is .169146569
Spread is Carolina Panthers minus 8.5 Prob of beating it is .668996674346213
Kelly Vegas point spread for Carolina Panthers is 30.489301249 % Growth is 1.044238853
Kelly Vegas point spread for Green Bay Packers is -40.489302349 %

Green Bay Packers
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 1 . . 1
1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3 . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 2 . . 2 . . 1 2 . . 3
4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6 . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 2 . . 2 . . 1 2 . . 2
7 1 . . 1 . . . 3 . . 3 . . 2 6 . . 6 . . 3 6 . 1 7
8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 1 . . 1
10 1 . . 1 . . 1 5 . . 6 . . 3 10 . 1 11 . . 6 11 . 2 13
11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
12 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
13 1 . . 1 . . . 5 . . 5 . . 3 8 . 1 9 . . 5 10 . 2 11
14 2 . . 2 . . 1 7 . . 8 . . 4 13 . 1 14 . . 8 15 . 3 17
15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
16 . . . . . . . 2 . . 3 . . 1 5 . . 5 . . 3 5 . 1 6
17 3 . . 4 . . 2 13 . . 14 . . 8 22 . 3 25 . . 14 26 . 5 29
18 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
19 . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 2 . . 2 . . 1 2 . . 2
20 3 . . 3 . . 2 11 . . 12 . . 7 19 . 2 21 . . 12 22 . 4 25
21 3 . . 3 . . 2 11 . . 12 . . 7 19 . 2 21 . . 12 22 . 4 25
22 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
23 1 . . 2 . . 1 6 . . 7 . . 3 11 . 1 12 . . 6 12 . 2 14
24 5 . . 6 . . 3 19 . 1 21 . . 12 33 . 4 37 . 1 20 38 . 7 42
25 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
26 . . . . . . . 2 . . 3 . . 1 4 . . 5 . . 2 5 . 1 6
27 4 . . 5 . . 2 16 . 1 18 . . 10 28 . 3 31 . 1 17 32 . 6 36
28 3 . . 3 . . 2 12 . . 13 . . 7 21 . 2 23 . . 13 24 . 4 27
29 . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . . 1 . . 1 . . 1 1 . . 2
30 2 . . 3 . . 1 9 . . 10 . . 5 16 . 2 18 . . 10 18 . 3 20
31 6 . . 6 . . 3 21 . 1 23 . . 13 36 . 4 40 . 1 22 42 . 8 47
32 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
33 1 . . 1 . . . 4 . . 4 . . 2 6 . . 7 . . 4 7 . 1 8
34 5 . . 5 . . 3 18 . 1 20 . . 11 31 . 4 34 . 1 19 36 . 7 40
35 3 . . 3 . . 1 10 . . 12 . . 6 18 . 2 20 . . 11 21 . 4 23
36 . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 2 . . 2 . . 1 2 . . 3
37 2 . . 3 . . 1 10 . . 11 . . 6 17 . 2 19 . . 11 20 . 4 22
38 5 . . 5 . . 3 18 . 1 20 . . 11 31 . 4 35 . 1 19 36 . 7 40
39 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
40 1 . . 1 . . . 4 . . 4 . . 2 7 . 1 8 . . 4 8 . 1 9
41 4 . . 5 . . 2 15 . 1 17 . . 9 27 . 3 30 . 1 16 31 . 6 35
42 2 . . 2 . . 1 7 . . 8 . . 4 12 . 1 14 . . 7 14 . 2 16
43 . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 2 . . 2 . . 1 3 . . 3
44 2 . . 2 . . 1 8 . . 10 . . 5 15 . 2 17 . . 9 17 . 3 19
45 3 . . 4 . . 2 12 . . 13 . . 7 21 . 2 23 . . 13 24 . 4 27
46 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
47 1 . . 1 . . . 3 . . 4 . . 2 6 . . 7 . . 4 7 . 1 8
48 3 . . 3 . . 1 10 . . 11 . . 6 18 . 2 20 . . 11 21 . 4 23
49 1 . . 1 . . . 3 . . 4 . . 2 6 . . 7 . . 4 7 . 1 8
50 . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 2 . . 2 . . 1 2 . . 2
51 1 . . 1 . . 1 6 . . 6 . . 3 10 . 1 11 . . 6 12 . 2 13
52 1 . . 2 . . 1 6 . . 7 . . 3 10 . 1 12 . . 6 12 . 2 14
53 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
54 . . . . . . . 2 . . 2 . . 1 4 . . 4 . . 2 5 . 1 5
55 1 . . 1 . . . 5 . . 6 . . 3 9 . 1 10 . . 5 10 . 2 12
56 . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 2 . . 2 . . 1 2 . . 3
57 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 1 . . 1
58 . . . . . . . 3 . . 3 . . 1 5 . . 5 . . 3 6 . 1 6
59 . . . . . . . 2 . . 2 . . 1 4 . . 4 . . 2 4 . . 5
60 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
61 . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 2 . . 2 . . 1 2 . . 2
62 . . . . . . . 2 . . 2 . . 1 3 . . 3 . . 2 4 . . 4
63 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
65 . . . . . . . 1 . . 1 . . . 2 . . 2 . . 1 2 . . 2
66 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . . 1 . . 1
67 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
68 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
69 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Prob of Green Bay Packers scoring a rushing td is zero
Prob of Carolina Panthers scoring a safety is zero
Prob of Green Bay Packers scoring a safety is zero
Prob of Carolina Panthers scoring a single is zero
Prob of Green Bay Packers scoring a single is zero

Most probable score is Carolina Panthers 31. - Green Bay Packers 17.

Positive Kelly Events

I don't hold with Kelly in most ways - but it's a good criteria for just spotting a bet.

12 Game # 4 Oct 2 2004 Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans Under prob is .995092072 Kelly is 98.808074528 % Growth is 1.651011186 5.582 %
13 Game # 5 Oct 2 2004 Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs Under prob is .971132667 Kelly is 92.989362035 % Growth is 1.507031644 5.253 %
15 Game # 1 Oct 2 2004 San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots Under prob is .969065117 Kelly is 92.487242809 % Growth is 1.49733207 5.225 %
16 Game # 9 Oct 2 2004 Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins Under prob is .953788602 Kelly is 88.777231867 % Growth is 1.433194131 5.015 %
20 Game # 7 Oct 2 2004 Saint Louis Rams at New York Giants Hp prob is .790503877 Pay is 2.5 Kelly is 65.083979425 % Growth is 1.374457431 3.677 %
10 Game # 3 Oct 2 2004 Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals Hp prob is .972616413 Pay is 1.5 Kelly is 91.78492385 % Growth is 1.348401469 5.185 %
6 Game # 6 Oct 2 2004 Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under prob is .915669062 Kelly is 79.519629383 % Growth is 1.311911639 4.492 %
25 Game # 11 Oct 2 2004 Dallas Cowboys at Oakland Raiders Over Kelly is 79.317208273 % Kelly is 79.317208273 % Growth is 1.309701563 4.481 %
21 Game # 7 Oct 2 2004 Saint Louis Rams at New York Giants H prob is .868255085 Pay is 1.9 Kelly is 72.187184705 % Growth is 1.304792848 4.078 %
23 Game # 10 Oct 2 2004 New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens V prob is .554525702 Pay is 4. Kelly is 40.603426922 % Growth is 1.233309971 2.294 %
18 Game # 9 Oct 2 2004 Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins H prob is .808923993 Pay is 2. Kelly is 61.784798676 % Growth is 1.227976572 3.49 %
9 Game # 3 Oct 2 2004 Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals Under prob is .870982597 Kelly is 68.667202132 % Growth is 1.211829224 3.879 %
7 Game # 6 Oct 2 2004 Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Hp prob is .839368392 Pay is 1.8 Kelly is 63.857888179 % Growth is 1.200712133 3.607 %
4 Game # 2 Oct 2 2004 Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars Hp prob is .678914775 Pay is 2.5 Kelly is 46.485795755 % Growth is 1.171654803 2.626 %
11 Game # 3 Oct 2 2004 Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals H prob is .99068128 Pay is 1.2 Kelly is 94.408768063 % Growth is 1.155429891 5.333 %
32 Game # 13 Oct 2 2004 San Francisco Forty Niners at Arizona Cardinals H prob is .73899511 Pay is 2.1 Kelly is 50.171793675 % Growth is 1.153678511 2.834 %
5 Game # 2 Oct 2 2004 Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars H prob is .782301722 Pay is 1.9 Kelly is 54.041474659 % Growth is 1.151207528 3.053 %
30 Game # 13 Oct 2 2004 San Francisco Forty Niners at Arizona Cardinals Under prob is .831719444 Kelly is 59.131864951 % Growth is 1.147402163 3.34 %
17 Game # 9 Oct 2 2004 Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins Hp prob is .643195778 Pay is 2.6 Kelly is 42.019313867 % Growth is 1.145973964 2.374 %
8 Game # 6 Oct 2 2004 Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers H prob is .921205942 Pay is 1.4 Kelly is 72.42207964 % Growth is 1.142085965 4.091 %
28 Game # 12 Oct 2 2004 Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons Hp prob is .653914802 Pay is 2.5 Kelly is 42.31913373 % Growth is 1.13994017 2.391 %
31 Game # 13 Oct 2 2004 San Francisco Forty Niners at Arizona Cardinals Hp prob is .608015308 Pay is 2.7 Kelly is 37.743607693 % Growth is 1.122575985 2.132 %
29 Game # 12 Oct 2 2004 Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons H prob is .747641878 Pay is 1.9 Kelly is 46.724396557 % Growth is 1.109080684 2.639 %
1 Game # 8 Oct 2 2004 Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints Under prob is .749162273 Kelly is 39.082266396 % Growth is 1.058488738 2.208 %
22 Game # 10 Oct 2 2004 New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens Over Kelly is 37.842207693 % Kelly is 37.842207693 % Growth is 1.054583179 2.138 %
19 Game # 7 Oct 2 2004 Saint Louis Rams at New York Giants Over Kelly is 37.300100292 % Kelly is 37.300100292 % Growth is 1.052925742 2.107 %
2 Game # 8 Oct 2 2004 Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints V prob is .56954867 Pay is 2.4 Kelly is 26.20834342 % Growth is 1.048323383 1.481 %
33 Game # 14 Oct 3 2004 Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers Over Kelly is 27.964727632 % Kelly is 27.964727632 % Growth is 1.028862797 1.58 %
24 Game # 10 Oct 2 2004 New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens Vp prob is .279114229 Pay is 5.5 Kelly is 11.891739118 % Growth is 1.028771431 .672 %
14 Game # 5 Oct 2 2004 Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs V prob is .463417318 Pay is 2.6 Kelly is 12.805314218 % Growth is 1.012930318 .723 %
34 Game # 14 Oct 3 2004 Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers Hp prob is .682490923 Pay is 1.6 Kelly is 15.330912798 % Growth is 1.007243919 .866 %
26 Game # 11 Oct 2 2004 Dallas Cowboys at Oakland Raiders Hp prob is .499738402 Pay is 2.2 Kelly is 8.285373721 % Growth is 1.004110267 .468 %
27 Game # 11 Oct 2 2004 Dallas Cowboys at Oakland Raiders H prob is .640145745 Pay is 1.6 Kelly is 4.038865291 % Growth is 1.000492232 .228 %
35 Game # 14 Oct 3 2004 Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers H prob is .780668221 Pay is 1.3 Kelly is 4.956228897 % Growth is 1.000372916 .28 %
3 Game # 2 Oct 2 2004 Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars Over Kelly is 3.166100914 % Kelly is 3.166100914 % Growth is 1.000352066 .179 %