GafferSports English Premier League selections

I first stumbled over the excellent Gaffer Sports at http://www.gaffersports.com/predictionleague/ in the middle of last year's season.

This is an entirely FREE contest with no cash involved at all.

In spite of entering it then and starting at 200th place or so I wound up in 20th or so over all. I knew I could win it next (that is to say, THIS) year.

Week 6 and I JUST lost first place. I hope to get it back before the season is over.

Gaffer makes us chose English Premier League and Champions league games. The scoring system is as follows.

* 0 Points for predicting the correct number of goals by at least one team.
* 0 Points for predicting the correct number of goals for the home team.
* 0 Points for predicting the correct number of goals for the away team.
* 3 Points for a correct score. i.e. you predict 3-1 and the result is 3-1.
* 1 Point for a correct result. You predict 1-1, the score is 2-2.
* 0 Points for a incorrect result. i.e. you predict 3-1 and the result is 1-3.

I use a computer to pick games, but I don't regard this as cheating as I also wrote the software. Exactly how this works i will go into later.

Now, the thing to understand is whenever there is a scoring system on a contest, you can game the contest - that is, you can adjust your picks so as to maximize the points under that system. I do that too - so here's my picks for next week's English Premier league!

Date 28 Sep 2005

Home Inter-Milan
Away Rangers

Prob Home Win .20416506
Prob Tie .255680846
Prob Visitor Win .540154094

Score Prob .141385428804553
Home Score Inter-Milan 0
Away Score Rangers 1
Gaffer's Gain for this selection is .105695808885742 WINNER

Date 28 Sep 2005

Home Liverpool
Away Chelsea

Prob Home Win .160451907
Prob Tie .345291138
Prob Visitor Win .494256955

Score Prob .233435662783113
Home Score Liverpool 0
Away Score Chelsea 1
Gaffer's Gain for this selection is .427999605972172 WINNER

Date 28 Sep 2005

Home Schalke Oh Four
Away AC Milan

Prob Home Win .38871309
Prob Tie .24525846
Prob Visitor Win .36602845

** Note that the most probable game score does not have the highest score under the scoring system - so we pick the one that DOES! **

Score Prob .113839843282755
Home Score Schalke Oh Four 1
Away Score AC Milan 1
Gaffer's Gain for this selection is -.299382166437388
Score Prob 8.54119005429963E-02
Home Score Schalke Oh Four 2
Away Score AC Milan 1
Gaffer's Gain for this selection is -.269639307919399 WINNER

Date 02 Oct 2005

Home Fulham
Away Manchester United

Prob Home Win .302404302
Prob Tie .289670349
Prob Visitor Win .407925349

Score Prob .133976225216383
Home Score Fulham 0
Away Score Manchester United 1
Gaffer's Gain for this selection is -5.61697503980558E-02 WINNER

Date 02 Oct 2005

Home Portsmouth
Away Newcastle United

Prob Home Win .650505231
Prob Tie .227782513
Prob Visitor Win .121712256

Score Prob .170696561279506
Home Score Portsmouth 1
Away Score Newcastle United 0
Gaffer's Gain for this selection is .33329147561958 WINNER

Date 02 Oct 2005

Home Charlton Athletic
Away Tottenham Hotspur

Prob Home Win .438342945
Prob Tie .253501548
Prob Visitor Win .308155507

** Note that the most probable game score does not have the highest score under the scoring system - so we pick the one that DOES! **

Score Prob .120172536239713
Home Score Charlton Athletic 1
Away Score Tottenham Hotspur 1
Gaffer's Gain for this selection is -.26580830719856
Score Prob 9.82648440244917E-02
Home Score Charlton Athletic 1
Away Score Tottenham Hotspur 0
Gaffer's Gain for this selection is -.168597678850789 WINNER

Date 02 Oct 2005

Home Blackburn Rovers
Away West Bromwich Albion

Prob Home Win .675027179
Prob Tie .251164852
Prob Visitor Win .073807969

Score Prob .24701370892827
Home Score Blackburn Rovers 1
Away Score West Bromwich Albion 0
Gaffer's Gain for this selection is .663082014805621 WINNER

Date 02 Oct 2005

Home Sunderland
Away West Ham United

Prob Home Win .114978914
Prob Tie .222070306
Prob Visitor Win .662950781

Score Prob .170523675200556
Home Score Sunderland 0
Away Score West Ham United 1
Gaffer's Gain for this selection is .345045481637237 WINNER

Date 02 Oct 2005

Home Manchester City
Away Everton

Prob Home Win .542254088
Prob Tie .305812731
Prob Visitor Win .151933181

Score Prob .218285036812843
Home Score Manchester City 1
Away Score Everton 0
Gaffer's Gain for this selection is .415394235682155 WINNER

Date 02 Oct 2005

Home Wigan Athletic
Away Bolton Wanderers

Prob Home Win .490946569
Prob Tie .412915476
Prob Visitor Win .096137955

Score Prob .344041703583022
Home Score Wigan Athletic 0
Away Score Bolton Wanderers 0
Gaffer's Gain for this selection is .789082290240434 WINNER

Home Arsenal
Away Birmingham City

Prob Home Win .875315656
Prob Tie .109149509
Prob Visitor Win .015534835

Score Prob .223547696474976
Home Score Arsenal 2
Away Score Birmingham City 0
Gaffer's Gain for this selection is .7695064420551 WINNER

Date 02 Oct 2005

Home Aston Villa
Away Middlesbrough

Prob Home Win .376907465
Prob Tie .303835518
Prob Visitor Win .319257017

Score Prob .139556871311771
Home Score Aston Villa 1
Away Score Middlesbrough 0
Gaffer's Gain for this selection is -.064865049519291 WINNER