NFL Week 8 Monday Night only

I don't know what happened - the blog didn't publish my picks - anyway here's Monday Night - Pittsburg to cover.

Team Stats
Name Rating
1 San Diego Chargers 63.4600780021784
2 New York Giants 63.2438398567176
3 Denver Broncos 62.7856378873553
4 Pittsburgh Steelers 61.7533492489405
5 Indianapolis Colts 61.4250271813216
6 Dallas Cowboys 59.8539392506835
7 Jacksonville Jaguars 58.7224561844231
8 Seattle Seahawks 58.4249848343531
9 Kansas City Chiefs 56.9242402157611
10 Washington Redskins 56.1104442075336
11 Philadelphia Eagles 55.1779362522713
12 Cincinnati Bengals 55.0323644792445
13 Chicago Bears 54.6009136464166
14 Oakland Raiders 54.4943937462839
15 New England Patriots 53.9666272518571
16 Carolina Panthers 51.6754872877251
17 Green Bay Packers 51.6411884648942
18 Detroit Lions 51.1917798886091
19 Atlanta Falcons 50.9497168818675
20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 50.8408974111935
21 Cleveland Browns 50.0665134224671
22 Miami Dolphins 49.6518757701836
23 Baltimore Ravens 48.4942308171388
24 Saint Louis Rams 47.2560764640932
25 Arizona Cardinals 46.4231227560193
26 Tennessee Titans 45.7396272340957
27 New York Jets 45.6720738557061
28 Buffalo Bills 44.1954435596442
29 New Orleans Saints 40.6559332631195
30 Houston Texans 40.6335134419309
31 Minnesota Vikings 40.3446446551847
32 San Francisco Forty Niner 36.947787151531

Schedule Factor - higher is harder schedule
Baltimore Ravens 107.566554043827 %
Houston Texans 107.200590118466 %
San Francisco Forty Niners 105.675880022659 %
Minnesota Vikings 105.633212305612 %
New York Jets 105.220941700024 %
Arizona Cardinals 104.583721384643 %
Cleveland Browns 104.553652533945 %
Jacksonville Jaguars 103.76510940905 %
New Orleans Saints 103.528911121286 %
Washington Redskins 102.973732813203 %
Detroit Lions 100.865606519424 %
Buffalo Bills 100.839797389568 %
Pittsburgh Steelers 100.791292072531 %
Miami Dolphins 100.761845015138 %
New England Patriots 100.715017109662 %
Philadelphia Eagles 100.320839983437 %
Oakland Raiders 100.315767258504 %
Chicago Bears 99.887111623225 %
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 99.654074657963 %
Kansas City Chiefs 98.427289460631 %
Denver Broncos 98.062247631855 %
Tennessee Titans 98.051745335695 %
New York Giants 97.88780298867 %
Dallas Cowboys 97.49805659041 %
Green Bay Packers 97.264664805975 %
Seattle Seahawks 96.537856126592 %
Atlanta Falcons 96.110451089331 %
San Diego Chargers 94.849211271831 %
Carolina Panthers 94.126442733627 %
Saint Louis Rams 93.918677325591 %
Cincinnati Bengals 93.185349553401 %
Indianapolis Colts 93.020561758443 %


Score

20 20 ********************
17 18 ******************
10 17 *****************
13 16 ****************
24 12 ************
27 12 ************
7 10 **********
23 10 **********
28 10 **********
3 09 *********
14 09 *********
21 09 *********
31 09 *********
16 08 ********
34 07 *******
19 06 ******
6 04 ****
30 04 ****
37 04 ****
38 04 ****
12 03 ***
25 03 ***
26 03 ***
42 03 ***
22 02 **
33 02 **
45 02 **
52 02 **
0 01 *
8 01 *
9 01 *
15 01 *
18 01 *
29 01 *
32 01 *
35 01 *
36 01 *
41 01 *
44 01 *
49 01 *
Score Histogram
0 *
1
2
3 *********
4
5
6 ****
7 **********
8 *
9 *
10 *****************
11
12 ***
13 ****************
14 *********
15 *
16 ********
17 ******************
18 *
19 ******
20 ********************
21 *********
22 **
23 **********
24 ************
25 ***
26 ***
27 ************
28 **********
29 *
30 ****
31 *********
32 *
33 **
34 *******
35 *
36 *
37 ****
38 ****
39
40
41 *
42 ***
43
44 *
45 **
46
47
48
49 *
50
51
52 **


Sum

40 10 **********
43 06 ******
37 05 *****
41 05 *****
44 05 *****
45 05 *****
26 04 ****
31 04 ****
34 04 ****
68 04 ****
16 03 ***
27 03 ***
29 03 ***
30 03 ***
35 03 ***
49 03 ***
50 03 ***
52 03 ***
58 03 ***
19 02 **
23 02 **
24 02 **
46 02 **
47 02 **
48 02 **
51 02 **
54 02 **
55 02 **
59 02 **
61 02 **
65 02 **
13 01 *
20 01 *
22 01 *
25 01 *
32 01 *
33 01 *
36 01 *
39 01 *
53 01 *
69 01 *
70 01 *
73 01 *
Sum Histogram
13 *
14
15
16 ***
17
18
19 **
20 *
21
22 *
23 **
24 **
25 *
26 ****
27 ***
28
29 ***
30 ***
31 ****
32 *
33 *
34 ****
35 ***
36 *
37 *****
38
39 *
40 **********
41 *****
42
43 ******
44 *****
45 *****
46 **
47 **
48 **
49 ***
50 ***
51 **
52 ***
53 *
54 **
55 **
56
57
58 ***
59 **
60
61 **
62
63
64
65 **
66
67
68 ****
69 *
70 *
71
72
73 *


Difference

3 19 ******************* 90% confidence this is not chance
6 08 ********
10 08 ********
4 06 ******
17 06 ******
2 05 *****
14 05 *****
20 05 *****
1 04 ****
7 04 ****
8 04 ****
13 04 ****
25 04 ****
5 03 ***
15 03 ***
21 03 ***
0 02 **
11 02 **
12 02 **
18 02 **
23 02 **
24 02 **
32 02 **
9 01 *
16 01 *
22 01 *
27 01 *
28 01 *
29 01 *
35 01 *
36 01 *
39 01 *
49 01 *
Difference Histogram
**
1 ****
2 *****
3 *******************
4 ******
5 ***
6 ********
7 ****
8 ****
9 *
10 ********
11 **
12 **
13 ****
14 *****
15 ***
16 *
17 ******
18 **
19
20 *****
21 ***
22 *
23 **
24 **
25 ****
26
27 *
28 *
29 *
30
31
32 **
33
34
35 *
36 *
37
38
39 *
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49 *

Home points advantage is 5.63478260869565
Average points per game is 20.6782608695652

Average Rushing TDs per game is .978260869565217
Average Passing TDs per game is 1.30869565217391
Average Field Goals per game is 1.4
Odd totals are 224
Even totals are 240
Z is .78920518725247 90% confidence this is chance
Over Wins totals are 49
Under Wins totals are 67
Z is 1.76410571268199 90% confidence this is not chance
Bet Overs Profit
Won is 102.9
Lost is 73.7
Profit is -24.7
On total bets of 127.6
Percent is 80.6426332288401

Bet Unders Profit
Won is 140.7
Lost is 53.9
Profit is 13.1
On total bets of 127.6
Percent is 110.266457680251

Favorite Wins totals are 63
Dog Wins totals are 53
Z is 1.02132435997379 90% confidence this is chance
Bet Favorites Profit
Won is 132.3
Lost is 58.3
Profit is 4.7
On total bets of 127.6
Percent is 103.683385579937

Bet Dogs Profit
Won is 111.3
Lost is 69.3
Profit is -16.3
On total bets of 127.6
Percent is 87.2257053291536

Home wins are 75
Away wins are 40
Z is 3.35701730966513 99% confidence this is not chance
Home wins minus home point advantage are 52
Away wins minus home point advantage are 63
Z is 1.11900576988838 90% confidence this is chance

Game # 14
Date Oct 31 2004
Home Pittsburgh Steelers
Away Baltimore Ravens
Lamdbas
Rushing Tds
Pittsburgh Steelers 3.11290741583118 21.7903519108183
Baltimore Ravens 1.82502984482961 12.7752089138073
Passing Tds
Pittsburgh Steelers 3.87700395785115 27.139027704958
Baltimore Ravens 4.1680282536388 29.1761977754716
Field Goals
Pittsburgh Steelers 3.0697886131229 9.20936583936869
Baltimore Ravens 3.08688318940946 9.26064956822837
Safetys
Pittsburgh Steelers 0.148913902924652 0.297827805849303
Baltimore Ravens 0.299475273788899 0.598950547577797
Singles
Pittsburgh Steelers 0
Baltimore Ravens 0

Pittsburgh Steelers 58.4365732609943 Baltimore Ravens 51.811006805085

Score Prob 7.57590556437255E-03
Home Score Pittsburgh Steelers 17
Away Score Baltimore Ravens 3
Score Prob 5.94909524993044E-03
Home Score Pittsburgh Steelers 20
Away Score Baltimore Ravens 3
Score Prob 5.67035716752664E-03
Home Score Pittsburgh Steelers 10
Away Score Baltimore Ravens 3
Score Prob 5.48748420815542E-03
Home Score Pittsburgh Steelers 24
Away Score Baltimore Ravens 3
Score Prob 5.47332020465843E-03
Home Score Pittsburgh Steelers 17
Away Score Baltimore Ravens 6
Score Prob 5.24310135111789E-03
Home Score Pittsburgh Steelers 17
Away Score Baltimore Ravens 0
Score Prob 5.22956813570346E-03
Home Score Pittsburgh Steelers 10
Away Score Baltimore Ravens 3
Score Prob 5.06091092894294E-03
Home Score Pittsburgh Steelers 24
Away Score Baltimore Ravens 3
Score Prob 4.8237877113299E-03
Home Score Pittsburgh Steelers 14
Away Score Baltimore Ravens 3
Score Prob 4.45273434365144E-03
Home Score Pittsburgh Steelers 13
Away Score Baltimore Ravens 3
Over is 33.5
Over prob is .408752729 Kelly is -43.588622967 % Growth is .
Under prob is .591247271 Kelly is .73148011 % Growth is 1.000018741

Hp prob is .756619655 Pay is 1.4 Kelly is 14.816879391 % Growth is 1.004544527
H prob is .860528263 Pay is 1.2 Kelly is 16.316957505 % Growth is 1.002793177
Tie prob is .101122254 Pay is 4.1 Kelly is -18.883830884 % Growth is .
V prob is .038349483 Pay is 5.2 Kelly is -19.061492556 % Growth is .
Vp prob is .019796845 Pay is 7.5 Kelly is -13.100364081 % Growth is .
Home Pittsburgh Steelers straight up win is .900231644
Away Baltimore Ravens straight up win is .099768356
Spread is Pittsburgh Steelers minus 10.5 Prob of beating it is .677783566444783
Kelly Vegas point spread for Pittsburgh Steelers is 32.334548599 % Growth is 1.050019569
Kelly Vegas point spread for Baltimore Ravens is -42.334549699 % Growth is .

Baltimore Ravens
1 2 3
17 . . 24
1 . . . .
2 2 . . 3
3 27 . . 39
4 . . . .
5 3 . . 5
6 21 . . 30
7 48 . . 69
8 2 . . 4
9 17 . . 25
10 75 . . 108
11 1 . . 2
12 14 . . 21
13 59 . . 85
14 67 . . 97
15 9 . . 13
16 40 . . 58
17 105 . . 152
18 4 . . 6
19 26 . . 38
20 82 . . 119
21 63 . . 92
22 15 . . 22
23 51 . . 74
24 98 . . 141
25 7 . . 10
26 30 . . 44
27 76 . . 110
28 45 . . 65
29 16 . . 23
30 46 . . 66
31 68 . . 99
32 7 . . 10
33 25 . . 36
34 53 . . 77
35 26 . . 37
36 12 . . 17
37 31 . . 45
38 38 . . 55
39 5 . . 7
40 16 . . 23
41 29 . . 43
42 12 . . 17
43 7 . . 10
44 17 . . 24
45 17 . . 25
46 3 . . 4
47 8 . . 12
48 13 . . 19
49 4 . . 6
50 3 . . 5
51 7 . . 10
52 6 . . 9
53 1 . . 2
54 3 . . 5
55 4 . . 7
56 1 . . 2
57 1 . . 2
58 2 . . 3
59 1 . . 2
60 . . . .
61 1 . . 1
62 1 . . 1
63 . . . .
64 . . . .
65 . . . 1
Prob of Baltimore Ravens scoring passing td is zero
Prob of Baltimore Ravens scoring safety is zero
Prob of Pittsburgh Steelers scoring single is zero
Prob of Baltimore Ravens scoring single is zero

Difference Histogram

Most probable score is Pittsburgh Steelers 22. - Baltimore Ravens 8.

-17 .000849447 *
-16 .00099005 *
-14 .001191517 *
-13 .002559488 **
-12 .000975801 *
-11 .001249883 *
-10 .004856226 ****
-9 .003622055 ***
-8 .001194226 *
-7 .00660179 *****
-6 .009185112 *******
-5 .002589103 **
-4 .00644762 *****
-3 .017161732 **************
-2 .00729756 ******
-1 .005441613 ****
0 .022734482 *******************
1 .017396747 **************
2 .006195915 *****
3 .020832069 *****************
4 .031914673 **************************
5 .010734682 *********
6 .01536816 *************
7 .041717026 **********************************
8 .021680458 ******************
9 .012083647 **********
10 .037149591 ******************************
11 .038086506 *******************************
12 .01305061 ***********
13 .025592021 *********************
14 .049070654 ****************************************
15 .020340009 *****************
16 .016809978 **************
17 .042986613 ***********************************
18 .033077924 ***************************
19 .013184176 ***********
20 .028503799 ***********************
21 .041755736 **********************************
22 .015469625 *************
23 .016984529 **************
24 .03613045 *****************************
25 .022540796 ******************
26 .010908758 *********
27 .023381219 *******************
28 .027654435 ***********************
29 .009899479 ********
30 .013118539 ***********
31 .023659765 *******************
32 .012596518 **********
33 .007392642 ******
34 .0150426 ************
35 .014877956 ************
36 .005376589 ****
37 .008095883 *******
38 .012575778 **********
39 .005823575 *****
40 .004161566 ***
41 .007872056 ******
42 .006530807 *****
43 .00250066 **
44 .004094471 ***
45 .005441825 ****
46 .002233187 **
47 .001959662 **
48 .003355859 ***
49 .002321559 **
50 .000999936 *
51 .001693583 *
52 .001897681 **
53 .000712933 *
54 .000764437 *
55 .001152188 *
56 .000661021 *
Sum Histogram
0 .001724841 **
3 .005201186 *****
5 .000729301 *
6 .007841982 *******
7 .005531467 *****
8 .001099589 *
9 .008658003 ********
10 .016679911 ***************
11 .001105255 *
12 .008281084 *******
13 .025148792 ***********************
14 .009702764 *********
15 .007019514 ******
16 .026522055 ************************
17 .027235575 ************************
18 .005181602 *****
19 .022806724 ********************
20 .04055493 ************************************
21 .012770868 ***********
22 .01685683 ***************
23 .041949207 **************************************
24 .030347507 ***************************
25 .010933616 **********
26 .034591547 *******************************
27 .043886251 ***************************************
28 .01386389 ************
29 .024013284 *********************
30 .044678919 ****************************************
31 .026030517 ***********************
32 .014494887 *************
33 .035961134 ********************************
34 .035868477 ********************************
35 .012624059 ***********
36 .024065852 **********************
37 .035876976 ********************************
38 .018331183 ****************
39 .013871595 ************
40 .028373147 *************************
41 .02361997 *********************
42 .009625648 *********
43 .018525286 *****************
44 .02311951 *********************
45 .01090229 **********
46 .010337467 *********
47 .018000337 ****************
48 .012890345 ************
49 .006185523 ******
50 .01152649 **********
51 .012275913 ***********
52 .005559107 *****
53 .006267294 ******
54 .009407714 ********
55 .00589895 *****
56 .003379765 ***
57 .005922409 *****
58 .005416716 *****
59 .00245797 **
60 .003147913 ***
61 .004077971 ****
62 .002280167 **
63 .001572194 *
64 .002526531 **
65 .001990768 **
66 .000947414 *
67 .001315438 *
68 .001466048 *
69 .000747485 *
70 .000619414 *
71 .000893827 *
72 .000607679 *

Not building tickets at this time